Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed

Ensemble Forecasts Using Rank Histograms

4 Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily 5 requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing 6 forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where the probabilistic forecast is given by an 7 ensemble of equally probable forecast scenarios. Multivariate properties are mapped to a single 8 dimension...

Evaluation of NU - WRF rainfall forecasts for IFloodS

Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of pr...

Influence of initial conditions on the WRF-ARW Model QPF response to physical parameterization changes

To assist in optimizing a mixed-physics ensemble for warm season mesoscale convective system rainfall forecasting, the impact of various physical schemes as well as their interactions on rainfall when different initializations were used has been investigated. For this purpose, high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of eight International H2O Project events were...

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Fuel Consumption Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

The effects of wind uncertainty on aircraft fuel consumption are analyzed using a probabilistic trajectory predictor. The case of cruise flight subject to an average constant wind is considered. The average wind is modeled as a random variable; the wind uncertainty is obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. The probabilistic trajectory predictor is based on the Probability Transformation Meth...